Argentina Poverty Rate Decline – INDEC Data & Milei Economic Metrics (2025–2026)

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## Argentina Poverty Rate Decline – INDEC Data & Milei Economic Metrics (2025–2026) ### Overview Argentina's national statistics bureau INDEC reported that 28.2% of the population was living in poverty in the second half of 2024, down sharply from prior periods, while extreme poverty affected 6.3% — approximately 1.9 million people (Buenos Aires Times, 2025). The data delivers a significant political boost to President Milei ahead of midterm elections. ### Key Data Points - **Poverty rate (H2 2024):** 28.2% of population (INDEC, Buenos Aires Times, 2025) - **Extreme poverty rate (H2 2024):** 6.3% / ~1.9 million people (INDEC, Buenos Aires Times, 2025) - The decline follows a period in which poverty had spiked sharply in early 2024 due to Milei's initial shock therapy measures, including the devaluation of the peso. ### Context & Interpretation - The recovery in poverty metrics follows Milei's fiscal adjustment, inflation reduction program, and currency stabilisation efforts. - Critics note that the baseline for comparison includes the elevated poverty levels caused by Milei's own early shock policies, making the 'recovery' partially a return to prior levels rather than a genuine structural improvement. - The data is nonetheless politically significant as it validates the administration's 'short-term pain for long-term gain' economic narrative. ### INDEC Credibility INDEC's methodology and independence have been politically contested in Argentina. Under the Kirchner governments, INDEC data was widely considered manipulated. The Macri government undertook reforms; the Milei government has maintained the reformed INDEC. International observers generally consider current INDEC data credible, though Argentine poverty measurement methodology uses a market basket approach that can produce significant swings. ### Employment Counterpoint A concurrent UBA study found that 80% of low-income workers in Argentina are in insecure employment (Buenos Aires Times, 2025), suggesting that while headline poverty has declined, employment quality and labor precarity remain severe structural challenges. ### Forward Significance - Poverty and employment data will be central to Argentina's October 2025 midterm election debate. - Investors assess these metrics as proxies for social stability risk and the sustainability of Milei's reform program.