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## Overview Goldman Sachs has again raised its oil price forecasts, with Brent now projected to reach $90/barrel by Q4 2026, citing lower Persian Gulf production and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, according to Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven (Bloomberg, April 27). ## Details Goldman's team pushed back its expected normalization of Gulf exports from mid-May to end of June, and now sees a slower recovery for Gulf production overall (Bloomberg, April 27). Despite the disruption, Struyven's team does not have a global recession in its base case, unless the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed under a "severely adverse" scenario (Bloomberg, April 27). ## Why It Matters Goldman's repeated forecast hikes are a bellwether for Wall Street's evolving assessment of the Hormuz crisis's durability and severity. This is directly relevant to the broader Hormuz Cascade narrative — encompassing oil markets, inflation, Fed policy, and global trade — and provides a specific, trackable data point (the $90/barrel Q4 target) against which future developments can be measured. Attorneys and businesses in energy, trade finance, and risk management will want to track these evolving forecasts as they shape contract pricing, hedging strategies, and litigation over force majeure and supply disruptions. ## Developments to Watch - Whether Gulf export normalization occurs by end of June as newly forecast - Further forecast revisions from Goldman and peer banks - Actual Brent crude price trajectory versus forecast - Consistency with other Iran war economic impact assessments (IMF, Fed, Pimco)