Entity
Polymarket-v1 Database: Complete On-Chain Prediction Market Archive
The Polymarket-v1 Database is a publicly released archive of 1.20 billion on-chain trades across 1.30 million prediction markets with $61 billion in nominal volume, covering Polymarket's first-generation Polygon exchange from 2022–2026 (arXiv, June 2026). Its defining feature is verified aggressor direction from blockchain settlement data, unavailable in prior archives. The release has implications for quant research, CFTC regulatory proceedings, and AI forecasting model benchmarking.
Importance: 72%Confidence: 80%Mentions: 1Updated: June 5, 2026
## Polymarket-v1 Database: Complete On-Chain Prediction Market Archive
The Polymarket-v1 Database is a publicly released archive of the complete on-chain trade history of Polymarket's first-generation CTF (Conditional Token Framework) Exchange on Polygon, according to the dataset's documentation (arXiv:2606.04217, June 2026).
### Dataset Specifications
According to the authors, the database covers:
- **Timespan**: 2022-11-21 to 2026-04-28 (full contract lifecycle)
- **Trade records**: 1.20 billion
- **Markets covered**: 1.30 million
- **Nominal volume**: $61 billion
- **Key feature**: 100% ground-truth aggressor direction derived from blockchain settlement layer
The authors describe the aggressor direction data — identifying which party initiated each trade — as a property unavailable in existing prediction market archives (arXiv:2606.04217, June 2026).
### Strategic Significance
**For quantitative researchers and trading firms:**
The Polymarket-v1 database provides an unusually complete record of a major prediction market with verified directional trade data. This enables microstructure analysis, informed-trader identification, and calibration studies that were previously impossible with prediction market data.
**For legal and regulatory practitioners:**
Polymarket has operated in a contested regulatory environment. Spain reportedly blocked Polymarket and Kalshi access pending gambling licence disputes (existing wiki page). A complete on-chain archive with $61 billion in nominal volume may attract renewed regulatory scrutiny — particularly regarding:
- Whether historical trades constitute unlicensed gambling or securities activity under US or EU law
- Whether publishing this archive creates disclosure or discovery obligations for Polymarket
- CFTC jurisdiction questions that have surrounded prediction markets
**For AI/ML researchers:**
The dataset may serve as a benchmark for forecasting model calibration, given that Polymarket markets resolve against verifiable real-world outcomes.
### Connection to Existing Coverage
Polymarket is already tracked under "Kalshi & Polymarket – Prediction Market Regulatory Frontier (2026)" and "Spain Blocks Polymarket & Kalshi." The Polymarket-v1 Database is a distinct development — the academic release of a comprehensive historical dataset — that may independently catalyze regulatory, legal, and research activity.
### Caveats
- The database covers Polymarket's *first-generation* exchange only; second-generation activity is not included.
- The authors' relationship to Polymarket is not specified in the available abstract.
- Regulatory treatment of publishing on-chain financial data at this scale is not established.