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Multiple developments in October 2026 highlight intensifying strategic competition over Taiwan. Former US officials, speaking at a Global Taiwan Institute symposium in Washington, warned that Washington's Taiwan policy is increasingly tied to its relationship with Beijing, with Brent Christensen, former AIT Taipei director, cautioning that the war on Iran is weakening US military readiness for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict (SCMP, October 8). Separately, Japan and the US will expand joint military exercises — Keen Sword 27, running October 19-29 — involving about 45,000 Japanese personnel (up from roughly 33,000 in 2024) and 12,000 US troops, rehearsing the movement of anti-ship missiles and air defences onto islands near Taiwan, which analysts say could complicate PLA planning (SCMP, October 8). According to SCMP reporting, Trump pressed Xi Jinping at their last month's summit to end a diplomatic freeze with Japan's Sanae Takaichi, stemming from Chinese restrictions imposed after Takaichi suggested Japan's military might intervene in a Taiwan conflict, but Xi was reportedly unmoved (SCMP, October 8). Also in this period, a US federal judge blocked the release of Wanying "Heather" Zhang, an alleged Beijing agent accused of surveilling Taiwan President's son in Seattle, after prosecutors argued she posed a flight risk given family ties in China (SCMP, October 8).