A Better Newspaper

## Overview The U.S. Supreme Court's 2026 term includes several notable developments: emergency docket activity concerning Trump administration policies, analysis of shifting ideological coalitions in criminal cases (dubbed by some commentators the "Kagan court" for criminal matters), a pending case on deference owed to the U.S. Sentencing Commission's interpretations of its own guidelines (with commentary suggesting the Court is unlikely to alter that deference), a case concerning the Constitution's structure in the Suncor dispute, calls for the Court to address prediction markets, a political ad rate dispute now resolved on the interim docket in the Trump administration's favor, a case on how a decades-old video privacy law applies in the internet age (with the Court appearing likely to let the suit proceed), a Trump request to revive a dismissed lawsuit against Hillary Clinton, newly granted cases on a DOGE data dispute, prisoners' rights, and the definition of "material support" for terrorism, a new Trump administration request asking the Court to determine courts' authority to vacate federal agency actions, a challenge to a Texas-DOJ agreement on deportation proceedings, commentary on the Court's role in the upcoming midterms, a review of the Court's 2025-26 interim (emergency) relief docket with an accompanying Stat Pack, commentary on the Court's reshaping of religious rights doctrine with a new case teed up as its next major free-exercise test, a separate commentary thread on a reorientation of First and Second Amendment doctrine, an immigration-heavy term, the Tribal Supreme Court Project's advocacy work before the Court, a Florida case on six-person juries, a UK Supreme Court case on causation in a murder conviction (separate from the US docket), a newly granted case on race and school admissions, a new case on the federal ban on home distilleries, cert denial ending a decade-long copyright dispute with North Carolina, a cert denial in Google's challenge to PTAB's "settled expectations" doctrine, and several other cert denials including Chicago vehicle seizures, 9/11 plea disputes, and the president's removal of NLRB members. ## Key Developments - The Court was urged to leave in place an order barring enforcement of a Trump administration policy on transgender inmates (SCOTUSblog, October 8). - Commentary identifies a pattern of "wild card" justices shaping outcomes in criminal cases, with Justice Kagan highlighted as a pivotal figure in what is being called the "Kagan court" for criminal cases (SCOTUSblog, October 8). - The Court agreed to decide what deference is owed to the U.S. Sentencing Commission's interpretations of its own guidelines (SCOTUSblog, October 8). New commentary argues the Court is unlikely to alter existing deference to the Sentencing Commission's guideline interpretations (SCOTUSblog, October 16). - A bipartisan group of states and the NFL are urging the Court to rule on prediction markets (SCOTUSblog, October 9; reiterated SCOTUSblog, October 16). - Commentary argues the Constitution's structure should decide the Suncor case (SCOTUSblog, October 9). - Democratic candidates asked the Court to leave in place an appeals court ruling in a political ad rate dispute (SCOTUSblog, October 10). The Court instead granted the Trump administration's request to pause the lower-court ruling, siding against the Democratic candidates on the interim docket (SCOTUSblog, October 14). - President Trump asked the Court to allow a previously dismissed lawsuit against Hillary Clinton to proceed (SCOTUSblog, October 11; SCOTUSblog, October 12). - The Court agreed to hear argument on how a decades-old video privacy law applies to internet-era claims; at argument, the Court appeared likely to allow the suit to proceed (SCOTUSblog, October 12; SCOTUSblog, October 14). - The Court granted certiorari in new cases concerning DOGE data access, prisoners' rights, and "material support" for terrorism (SCOTUSblog, October 13). - The Court agreed to hear arguments in CREW v. DOGE, seeking public records on Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency — the second time the Court has intervened in this case, with the Trump administration itself requesting review; the Court previously reined in lower-court discovery in the case last year (Arab News, October 13). - Florida court clerks warned the Court that invalidating the state's use of six-person juries in non-capital cases — upheld 56 years ago in Williams v. Florida — would roughly double jury management costs and strain the court system (Florida Bar News, October 13). - SCOTUSblog published a snapshot and companion "Stat Pack" of the Court's 2025-26 interim relief docket, noting unspecified "surprises" (SCOTUSblog, October 13-14). - Separately, the UK Supreme Court heard an appeal on causation in the death of Peter Farquhar in the Maids Moreton case, a distinct UK judicial body (BBC, October 13). - SCOTUSblog published commentary on a First/Second Amendment doctrinal "reorientation," religious-rights reshaping, the Tribal Supreme Court Project, and a roundup titled "Hooch, hardball, and Halloween" (SCOTUSblog, October 14-15). - A SCOTUSblog piece titled "Getting the Second Amendment Right" criticizes the Court's AR-15-related Second Amendment jurisprudence as an "unexplained betrayal of originalism" (SCOTUSblog, October 15; October 16). - SCOTUSblog published "An immigration-heavy term," surveying immigration-related cases on the docket (SCOTUSblog, October 15, expanded October 16). - The Trump administration asked the Court to decide courts' ability to vacate federal agency actions (SCOTUSblog, October 16). - SCOTUSblog published "The Supreme Court and the midterms," examining the Court's potential role in upcoming midterm elections (SCOTUSblog, October 16). - Challengers asked the Court to pause an agreement between Texas and the Department of Justice concerning deportation proceedings (SCOTUSblog, October 15). - The Court declined to take up cases on vehicle seizures in Chicago, disputes over 9/11 plea agreements, and the president's removal of National Labor Relations Board members; specific reasoning for the denials not detailed in available reporting (SCOTUSblog, October 19). - The Court agreed to hear a case on race and school admissions; specific facts and parties not detailed in available reporting (SCOTUSblog, October 19; confirmed as one of "two significant cases" granted, SCOTUSblog, October 20). - The Court agreed to consider the federal ban on home distilleries; specific legal questions and parties not detailed in available reporting (SCOTUSblog, October 19; confirmed as one of "two significant cases" granted, SCOTUSblog, October 20). - NEW: The Court denied certiorari in Frederick L. Allen, et al. v. Joshua Stein, Governor of North Carolina, ending a decade-plus copyright dispute over documentary footage of a state-sponsored shipwreck salvage project; the case had previously produced a prior Supreme Court decision and led North Carolina to enact and later repeal a law shielding the state from copyright liability (IPWatchdog, October 20). - NEW: The Court denied Google's petition for certiorari challenging the USPTO's development of a "settled expectations" doctrine at the Patent Trial and Appeal Board, which factors into discretionary denials of inter partes review proceedings; the denial follows the Solicitor General's recommendation to deny and agreement with the Federal Circuit's approach (IPWatchdog, October 20). - NEW: SCOTUSblog previewed what it called the Court's "next major case" on the free exercise of religion; specific case details not provided in available reporting (SCOTUSblog, October 20). ## Why It Matters These developments bear on executive power limits, criminal sentencing practice, administrative-law deference doctrine, separation-of-powers questions, election-law/media-regulation questions resolved in the Trump administration's favor on the interim docket, digital privacy law's application to modern internet services, government data-access and transparency, prisoners' rights, national-security law's "material support" standard, jury-size doctrine, immigration law and enforcement, tribal legal interests, labor-law and presidential removal power (via the NLRB cert denial), patent-law finality and PTAB discretionary-denial practice, state sovereign immunity in copyright disputes, and the composition of the emergency docket. The newly granted race-and-school-admissions case could extend the Court's recent affirmative-action jurisprudence into new educational contexts. The home-distillery case raises federal regulatory-power questions with potential relevance to broader excise and licensing law. The vacatur case on federal agency actions could significantly reshape judicial review of executive action. The midterms commentary signals growing attention to the Court's potential influence on the 2026 elections. The upcoming free-exercise case signals continued expansion of religious-liberty doctrine. ## What to Expect Additional argument and emergency-docket activity are expected on the above matters. A final ruling in the video privacy law case is expected, with the Court signaling likely openness to allowing the suit to proceed. Briefing and argument scheduling are expected in the newly granted race-and-school-admissions and home-distillery cases, now confirmed by SCOTUSblog as the term's two most significant new grants. Further analysis is expected on the federal-agency-vacatur question, the midterms piece, the Texas-DOJ deportation dispute, religious rights reshaping (including the newly previewed free-exercise case), First/Second Amendment reorientation, the immigration-heavy term, and Tribal Supreme Court Project advocacy. Oral argument in CREW v. DOGE and the Florida six-person jury case should be scheduled in coming months. With the North Carolina copyright case and Google's PTAB challenge now concluded via cert denial, no further proceedings are expected in those matters.