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## Overview Ukraine launched what was described as its biggest drone attack on Moscow in years in mid-2026, setting an oil refinery ablaze in the Kapotnya district and engulfing the Russian capital in smoke. The strikes mark a significant expansion of Ukraine's ability and willingness to conduct strikes deep into Russian territory. ## The Kapotnya Refinery Strike The Kapotnya oil refinery, located in the southeastern Moscow district, was set ablaze by Ukrainian drones (SCMP). The facility is a significant piece of Russian energy infrastructure, with the smoke from the fire visible across multiple Moscow districts. ## Russian Civilian Reaction Residents in the nearby Maryino district were reported as bracing for continued attacks and possible petrol shortages. One shopkeeper, Andrei Kondratyev, said Russians needed to "get used to" a new reality (SCMP). The strikes, once "unthinkable" when Russia launched its full-scale offensive in 2022, have become increasingly routine (SCMP). ## Strategic Significance The Moscow strikes demonstrate: - Ukraine's growing long-range drone capability and willingness to use it against the Russian capital itself - A deliberate strategic choice to bring economic and psychological pressure to Russian civilians and industrial infrastructure - Potential fuel supply disruption risk in Moscow, adding domestic pressure on the Kremlin ## Connection to Belarus Ultimatum The Moscow strikes occurred in the same period as Zelensky's ultimatum to Belarus over signal relay stations (see separate page), suggesting a coordinated Ukrainian escalation strategy targeting both Russian infrastructure and its Belarusian enablers simultaneously. ## Implications For risk and legal advisors: - Energy infrastructure strikes near Moscow may affect Russian domestic fuel prices and supply chains - Continued escalation increases risk of Russian retaliation against non-military Ukrainian infrastructure - Insurance and force majeure considerations for Russia-adjacent trade remain elevated